Brownsville's drought reaches 'extreme' level

Aug 8, 2009      The Brownsville Herald

Ryan Henry

Aug. 8, 2009 (McClatchy-Tribune Regional News delivered by Newstex) -- Above-average summer heat and dry conditions thrust Cameron County into extreme drought this week.

On Thursday, the National Weather Service in Brownsville elevated the county's drought status from "severe" to "extreme" drought.

"Essentially, all of the Rio Grande Valley is in the (extreme) category," said Mike Castillo, meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Brownsville.

Previously, only portions of the county to the north qualified as suffering from the extreme drought.

Brooks County, eastern portions of Jim Hogg, most of Kenedy County and the northeast portions of Willacy County have reached the "exceptional drought" stage, categorized as level D4 by the federal government.

And the worst could be ahead for Brownsville and the surrounding region.

"(Cameron County) is well into D3 (extreme drought) now," Castillo said. "We're getting close to D4, generally in the north where we're on the edge of D4 (exceptional drought)."

So far, the opening week of August has only offered a glimmer of relief. Any rainfall over the weekend or coming weeks could prevent a worsening of the county's drought status, which Castillo estimated could be upgraded to "exceptional" in another three weeks if conditions do not improve.

"Right now, we're carrying a 20 percent chance of rain for the weekend," Castillo said. "That's going to probably continue into Monday, but it's going to be isolated rain. I wouldn't expect a whole lot of rain. The rain shouldn't really impact the drought or do much to relieve the drought conditions."

After July produced less than a quarter inch of rain for Brownsville and temperatures averaged three degrees above normal, meteorologists now know July delivered the month's least amount of rain since 1998 and qualified as the fourth warmest in the city's recorded history.

Without a drop of rain for August as of Friday, Brownsville fell another quarter inch behind in its struggle against the worsening drought. Furthermore, temperatures were still approximately 2.6 degrees above average.

This is significant for the region, officials warn.

"The lack of rainfall is driving the drought conditions, but the excessive heat is making things worse," Castillo said.

Cameron County and the rest of the Rio Grande Valley have not suffered alone.

"I know other parts of the state are seeing similar conditions," Castillo said, "especially areas under the extreme drought conditions -- roughly everything in South Central Texas to Deep South Texas. It's a fairly large area."

The main threat is a lack of rainfall, Castillo said. The drought began with abnormally dry conditions in January, and the NWS posted its first drought statement Feb. 2.

Except for May, every month so far this year has contributed to the current rain deficit. Since Jan. 1, the NWS in Brownsville has recorded only 5.94 inches, a mere 46 percent of the 12.85 inches of rain that should have already fallen in 2009.

Making things worse, most of that rain fell in a single month when May provided approximately 4 1/2 inches of rain.

"That helps put a dent in the rain deficit and it helps lessen some of the drought conditions temporarily, but you have to have extended periods of rain for several months to alleviate drought conditions," Castillo said. "Otherwise, most of the rain is lost in run off (instead of seeping into the ground)."

The bad news affects farmers and ranchers the most.

"Fortunately, we're in a decent situation hydrologically with the reservoirs because of the rain we had last year with Hurricane Dolly," Castillo said. "So there's actually quite a bit of water in the reservoirs to help keep the water supply in decent shape. It's more in the agricultural aspect that things have begun to disintegrate. In the short run, we won't have an impact in water supply except for agriculture."

Sonia Lambert, general manager of Cameron County Irrigation District No. 2, said county farmers can still draw upon irrigation reservoir supplies, which are at approximately 87 percent of maximum capacity.

"There is, at the time, sufficient water for agriculture for this year and next year -- and possibly the year after that," Lambert said. "Anytime there is a drought, it is a concern, though our water comes from the reservoirs, so it's not an immediate concern."

According to the irrigation district, the water supply has been replenished at a pace of about 700,000 acre-feet per year. During periods of drought, farmers rely more heavily upon that supply, Lambert said.

There might be more demand for water before the year ends. Some farmers are considering planting fall crops to compensate for difficulties earlier in the year, Lambert said.

"Sugar cane is the crop we have right now that has not been harvested, so they're still irrigating their fields and will be doing so for another month and a half to two months," she added.

What kind of rain levels would we need to get out of our drought? Castillo said the most recent calculations showed the area needed 12 to 15 inches to fall during the three summer months in order to recover from the drought. Brownsville has had only three-quarters of an inch since the start of June.

"Other than a tropical storm or a hurricane, we would have to have a large area of thunderstorms come down," Castillo said. "What's bad is that thunderstorms tend to provide localized rain, so we would need several thunderstorms to provide the widespread rain that we would need."

Storms often stall over a region in other parts of the country but rarely do so over the Valley. "If it happens here, it usually happens in the spring or fall," Castillo said. " That's when are more likely to get fronts that stall over the area."

The NWS expects the drought to persist at least through October.

"We think come winter, things will start to turn around," Castillo added.

RAINFALL SO FAR THIS YEAR

Rainfall: 5.94(YTD)

Normal: 12.85(YTD)

MONTH RAINFALL NORMAL LEVELS

JAN 0.11 1.36

FEB 0.47 1.18

MAR 0.11 0.93

APR trace amounts 1.96

MAY 4.52 2.48

JUNE 0.49 2.93

JULY 0.24 1.77

AUG(MTD) 0.00(MTD) 0.24(MTD)

Newstex ID: KRTB-0031-37073024

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