Kansas wheat forecast dips 4%

May 13, 2009      The Wichita Eagle

Rick Plumlee

May 13, 2009 (McClatchy-Tribune Regional News delivered by Newstex) -- April freeze was much harder on Oklahoma's crop

As Kansas wheat farmers fret over the final outcome of this year's crop, they can at least breathe a sigh of relief they're not working Oklahoma's fields. The drought and early April freeze that nipped Kansas wheat took a big bite out of the crop for the neighbors to the south.

Tuesday, the U.S. Department of Agriculture released a forecast that called for Kansas to produce 340 million bushels of wheat this year -- a 4 percent drop from 2008, when the state ranked No. 1 in the nation with 356 million bushels.

But that same report pegged Oklahoma's harvest to be only 80.5 million bushels, a decline of more than 50 percent from last year.

The freeze in Oklahoma was more prolonged than in Kansas, where low temperatures were primarily limited to April 6 and 7.

"We have pockets of freeze damage," said Dusti Fritz, CEO of the Kansas Association of Wheat Growers. "We have pockets where it's too dry, pockets where it's too wet.

"But we're fortunate in Kansas to have a wide growing area, so we have that diversity."

The forecast for the state's slight production drop parallels the reduction in acres planted this year, Kansas Agriculture Statistics Service statistician Bob White said.

Farmers seeded 9 million acres last fall -- 600,000 fewer than in the previous planting. The USDA estimated 8.5 million acres will be harvested, down 400,000 acres from 2008.

The report also predicted Kansas would average 40 bushels an acre, the same that was harvested last year.

"At this point, the freeze hasn't had a big impact on the Kansas crop," White said.

Of course, that depends on where the fields are. Those in the state's south-central area were hit harder by the freeze.

Sedgwick County extension agent Gary Cramer has said 30 to 40 percent of the wheat in the area showed some freeze damage.

"The good thing we have going for us is we don't have a lot of disease pressure," Fritz said. "If it stays damp and cool, that could change."

The cool, damp weather also helps the wheat's development, particularly for areas recovering from the freeze.

"It's a double-edged sword," Fritz said.

The USDA's report was a close reflection of the one given last week by the Wheat Quality Council. After completing its annual tour of the state's fields, the council predicted a harvest of 333.3 million bushels with an average yield of 40.8 bushels an acre.

"They're both just a picture in time," Fritz said of the two forecasts. "What happens between now and when the crop is harvested is critical."

As of Sunday, the USDA reported that 95 percent of Kansas' wheat had reached the jointing stage, 6 percent better than a year ago at this time. Jointing occurs when the wheat head is above the soil surface.

The report rated 43 percent of the crop as good, 37 percent fair, 9 percent poor, 8 percent excellent and 3 percent very poor.

The USDA's national wheat forecast predicted 1.5 billion bushels, down about 366 million bushels from a year ago. The country planted almost 4 million fewer acres in wheat last fall over the previous year.

The USDA will give another forecast June 10.

Reach Rick Plumlee at 316-268-6660 or rplumlee@wichitaeagle.com.

Newstex ID: 34881738

Return to full Washington Letter