Drought's effects may linger for years

Apr 22, 2009      Montgomery Advertiser

Marty Roney

Apr. 20, 2009 (McClatchy-Tribune Regional News delivered by Newstex) -- The persistent drought that has plagued Alabama the past four years has ended, and forecasts calling for normal or near normal chances of rain through the summer means the dry cycle may be over.

That's good news for those who have helplessly watched their front lawns turn brown, as well as central Alabama's vital agriculture industry and other businesses in the area that support recreation and commerce on the rivers and nearby lakes. But it could be years before things get back to normal, provided the rains keep falling.

The state has been in a dry pattern going back to 2005 according to data from the National Weather Service.

In 2007, the area's rainfall was 20 inches below average -- in a normal year central Alabama gets almost 55 inches of rain. The drought of 2007 was the worst the area's seen in 100 years.

Last year the deficit was about 3 inches. That didn't tell the whole story, said Roger McNeil, a hydrologist with the National Weather Service's office in Birmingham. It's his job to determine where the rain goes once it falls.

Conditions had been getting worse and worse for at least four years.

"The deficits for 2005, 2006 and 2008 don't appear to be that bad," he said. "But you have to look at those years as a whole. We were in a persistent dry pattern from 2005 on. We had large events of rainfall in 2005 and 2006, Hurricane Katrina being one of those.

"But if you remove one or two large rain events, 2005 and 2006 would have been very dry years. In 2008, there were long periods without rain in the summer. And of course in 2007, it was like somebody just turned the spigot off."

The U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook, last updated on Thursday, predicts good chances that the state will receive normal rainfall through October. Weather patterns shift throughout the year, with summer and late fall being the times when drought conditions tend to surface.

A wet spring this year has led to minor flooding of rivers in central and west Alabama. In the short term, Mother Nature is resilient. It only takes normal to near-normal rainfall for lakes and rivers to bounce back quickly from low levels. In the long run, recovery won't be so easy.

"It took several years of dry conditions to get in this shape," McNeil said. "It's going to take several years to get out. Surface water levels recover quickly. The ground water levels take more time to return to normal.

"Historically, in Alabama, there is a significant drought every 10 to 12 years. This most recent drought was unusual because of its length and severity. It will take two to five years of normal to near normal rainfall for the full effects of this drought to go away."

During the drought years, especially in 2007, local waterways suffered low levels.

During the summer of 2007, Lake Martin had water so low that many marinas couldn't take boats after Labor Day.

Lake Martin is a popular vacation and getaway spot, bringing in people from throughout the state and region, and the blow to the economy there was palpable. Water levels rose the following year -- but so did gas prices, another blow to the recreation business.

"Last year wasn't so bad, the water was up, but in the summer gas prices went through the roof," said Dave Commander, general manager for Russell Marine, an outfit that operates four marinas on Lake Martin. "We are looking for a better year this year. If the rain comes and gas prices stay low, there will be more traffic on the lake."

During warmer weekends, crowds already are making their way to the lake, said Paul Lackey, a partner and general manager at Sinclair's at Kowaliga, a popular eating spot.

"I don't think we will spend as much time this year worrying about the weather forecasts as we have spent in the previous years," he said. "The drought being over is good for the lake and businesses along the lake. But it's also good news for the surrounding communities. Look at Alex City, Tallassee and Eclectic. When the lake levels were very low, those cities suffered because the people just weren't coming to the lake."

Lake Martin is at its full summer pool of 490 feet, said Jan Ellis, a spokeswoman for Alabama Power Co. (NYSE:ABA) The utility owns and operates Martin Dam, which forms Lake Martin, and Jordan Dam, which forms its smaller sister to the west.

"Obviously the predictions of normal rainfall is good news for everyone," she said. "We have plans in place to conserve as much water as possible on our reservoirs. Hopefully the predictions will hold out and we will have a better year this year compared to the past several years."

Jay Bryant of Prattville echoes that statement.

"We're due for a break in the drought," he said. "It's not unusual to see one or two weeks of dry conditions in the summer, but we can do without those long spells of no rain.

"Shoot, if we get normal rainfall this summer, I won't even complain about cutting the grass once a week."

BY THE NUMBERS

Forecasts call for normal or above normal chances of rain through October, so it appears the drought that has plagued Alabama for the past four years might be over.

The Montgomery area receives an average of 54.77 inches of rain per year. The following are the rainfall totals by year for the past four years:

--2005: 49.54 inches

--2006: 44.77 inches

--2007*: 35.6 inches

--2008: 51.92 inches

*During its height in 2007, the drought was called the worst Alabama has seen in 100 years

NOTE: Rainfall deficits reached double digits during the years 2005, 2006 and 2008

Source: National Weather Service data

Newstex ID: KRTB-0128-34324078

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